Oxford Economics - Shaping the Future of Travel

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Macro trends driving industry growth over the next decade

Written by Oxford Economics, the world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis for business and government, Shaping the Future of Travel: Macro trends driving industry growth over the next decade draws on detailed macro-economic modeling as well as qualitative interviews with industry experts, to forecast a wide range of future trends, including pockets of growth and opportunity that will shape the next 10 years of travel.

“Shaping the Future of Travel - Macro trends driving industry growth over the next decade” analyses the future of travel according to travel tendencies. This report has been created taking into account the opinions of relevant travel industry players, including participants from major airlines, airport operators, rail operators, travel industry experts, hotel operators, online travel agents, information developers and participants drawn from Amadeus itself. Travel segments involved in this study cover airports, airlines, ground transport, hotels, railways and car hire companies.

In the first part of the document global travel trends (worldwide travel trends and regional travel tendencies) have been analyzed. Financial crisis impact has been evaluated according to nights spent in both domestic and international accommodation. Regarding regional travel trends, it is highlighted the travel and passengers flows and travel spend in growing regions (Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa) in terms of hospitality, airlines and airports.

In the second part it is evaluated the travel industry in emerging economies, such as Russia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey, focusing in the important role of China in the air travel industry. Air traffic in these emerging markets is increasingly independent of mature Western markets and the future travel expenditure in these countries is driven by expectations of consumer spending, employment and overall GDP growth proactively promoting outbound tourism. Also, local travel providers are successfully tailoring multi-modal content to travellers’ requirements utilising local market expertise.

Regarding business travel trends, it is examined Western an Asian travel markets and how business travel had gradually recovered from the effects of the last recession, thanks to technological developments among other factors such as passenger empowerment.

The most important trend in the next decade is the further expansion of Low Cost Carriers market share. The more successful LCCs become the more likely they are to outgrow their original business model and be forced to adapt business models in the airline sector. LCCs and traditional carriers will compete in the next years in terms of price versus service.

And finally the report explores the impact of seamless travel experience and its two most important factors: technology and infrastructure. Infrastructure provides the different modalities of transportation, and technologies connect the different modes of transportation.

The development of internet based and mobile technologies is increasing the use of mobile devices for travel and travel technology providers are developing applications to further facilitate information provision, bookings and reservations, travel connectivity and payments.