A near ‘perfect storm’ of instability, debt, uneven GDP growth expectations, a shift of economic power from west to east, the emergence of new trading blocs and changes in the pattern of globalisation suggest that the next two decades will see major economic upheavals.
There are clear imbalances in the structure of the global economy and major concerns that factors such as unmanageable public debt could drive further recessions at regular intervals. These factors could in turn hinder the capacity for airports to invest.
In the face of a turbulent outlook for developed nations in particular, hope is being placed on global economic growth driven primarily by the emerging economies to provide a much needed stimulus. The EIU estimates that the 2012-2030 period could see average annual growth of 6.6% in India, 5.7% in China, and 5.4% in Indonesia, whilst growth in the US may amount to 2.7%, Germany 1.9% and Japan 1.0%.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) highlights that the transfer of economic power is not a recent development. The Asian economies have increased their share of global GDP (PPP – Personal Power Parity) from 27% in 1995 to 34% in 2009. In fact, The Economist predicts that by 2014, Asia’s PPP share of the world economy will exceed that of America and Europe combined.
These factors make one point more clear than ever; the aviation sector can no longer rely on macro-economic stability to drive future growth.
Have a look at our in-depth report Reinventing the Airport Ecosystem for more analysis on this important topic.